INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE…To help the economy succeed, the Fed is certainly using its ability to the max. Coming out of the FOMC meeting Wednesday, the Fed announced “Operation Twist”–a strategy of selling its short-term securities to buy long-term bonds to drive down long term interest rates, especially for mortgages. This latest Fed effort to help the housing market is great news for anyone thinking of buying a home, as mortgage rates should stay very very low.

Wednesday’s other great news for housing was August Existing Home Sales came in UP 7.7%, to an annual rate just the other side of 5 million units, the best reading since March. This dropped the supply of existing homes to 8.5 months. Tuesday, August Housing Starts were down 5%, to a 571,000 unit annual rate. But, hey, dealing with a hurricane and floods, builders across a good part of the East were hesitant to break ground. Better news came with building permits–UP 3.2% for the month and now UP 7.8% versus a year ago

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK…Don’t avoid taking a prudent risk just because risks sometimes result in failure. Without the possibility of failure, there is no possibility of success.

>> Review of Last Week

IT’S ALL GREEK TO WALL STREET…The week before last, investors were optimistic about Greek debt and European financial problems and the stock market went up. Last week, Wall Street worried that Greece wasn’t making progress with the austerity plan that would earn it a bail out from its richer neighbors. Then Moody’s downgraded Italy’s debt. Lastly, the Fed chimed in: “There are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.” Stocks suffered their worst weekly loss since October 2008.

Wall Streeters were obviously ignoring the good economic signs. Same-store sales were UP 3.4% versus a year ago, as measured by the International Council of Shopping Centers. Redbook Research reported an even better 4.1% boost in same-store sales. There was the positive housing data reported above. Then, some economists said they expect consumer spending to climb at a 1.5%–2% annual rate in Q3. The economy may not be booming, but it’s not double-dipping back into recession either.

For the week, the Dow ended down 6.4%, at 10771; the S&P 500 was down 6.5%, to 1136; and the Nasdaq was down 5.3%, to 2483.

It was an historic week in the bond market, as Treasury yields dropped to record lows after the Fed announced its $400 billion “twist” to sell shorter term bonds and buy longer ones. The FNMA 3.5% bond we track closed Friday at $102.27, UP 1.22 for the week. National average mortgage rates held steady, but they’re already at historic levels, well below where they were a year ago. Now with the Fed’s Operation Twist, some observers say rates may go even lower.

DID YOU KNOW?…The majority of real estate agents believe that the biggest reason homes don’t sell is simply price.

>> This Week’s Forecast

MORE ON HOME SALES, GDP, INFLATION…Monday, August New Home Sales are expected down a tad from the prior month. Thursday’s Pending Home Sales for July are predicted down a little. That day will also reveal the Q2 GDP, Third Estimate, forecast up slightly but still registering modest 1.2% growth. Friday brings a reading on August inflation in the form of Core PCE Prices, the Fed’s favorite gauge, which should still be within their target range.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Thank you to Tom Chapman at Prime Lending for this wonderful article.

For the monthly period ending September 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $78.83 averaged for all areas and types. This is 0.7% lower than the $79.40 we now measure for August 16. Our forecast range was $77.17 to $80.21 with a mid-point of $78.74. Once again our forecasting technique proved remarkably accurate as the actual figure is only 9 cents higher than the mid point of our forecast range. The reason for the unusual accuracy over the last two months is that the market has remained fairly stable although it did change substantially after mid June. For the last three months sales activity has been concentrated at the bottom end of the market with the middle and top end much weaker than during the spring.

On September 15 REO sales across Greater Phoenix (all types) averaged $61.65 per sq. ft. (up a substantial 3.5% from August 16). Pre-foreclosures and short sales averaged $73.27 (down 0.3%) while normal sales averaged $100.73 (down a startling 4.9%). Normal sales gained market share, moving from 32.4% to 33.1% of sales, while REOs lost substantial market share, moving from 45.0% to 41.4%. Short sales and pre-foreclosures were the winners again this month, moving from 22.6% to 25.4% and recovering from a dip in August after a strong spike at the end of June.

On September 16 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $78.47, 0.5% above the reading for August 16 – the first time we have seen a rise for several months. Among pending listings we have 27.6% normal, a sharply declining 35.0% REO and a fast growing 37.4% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. The average pricing for pending listings on August 16 in each category were: $108.70 normal, $68.90 short sales & pre-foreclosures and $60.82 for REOs. We can see that compared with last month the pending $/SF averages are up for REOs, but down for normal listings and (especially) short sales.

The price gap between REOs and short sales has narrowed substantially and disappeared completely for several price ranges.

Our new mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on October 15 is $79.21, which is 0.49% above the September 15 reading, and we have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $77.63 to $80.79. A substantial change in the mix can have a significant effect on the average price per sq. ft. and we are still seeing considerable variation from day to day.

Since we are projecting a small and insignificant rise in pricing it is possible that our reading for August 25 – $78.69 per sq. ft. – will remain the low point over the near term. While prices for lender owned homes are on the rise, short sales and normal listings are still displaying considerable price weakness, so the overall price direction is still vague. The lowest monthly average sales price is $150,201 set on August 25. However the record low monthly median sales price is still standing at $107,000 and this was set seven months ago on February 24. Our current monthly median sales price is back at $110,000, where it has been for the majority of the last 9 months.

There have been several media stories making a big deal about increased foreclosure numbers in August. Outside Arizona, and especially in judicial foreclosure states. these may have had some significance. Inside Maricopa County, they seem to have no significance at all. The rise in completed foreclosures from July to August was small at 8% and less than the 15% increase in the number of days that the calendar gave the trustees to work. There was a noticeable rise in foreclosure notices issued by Recontrust, the company that handles the notices for Bank of America. However the notices for other trustees were at roughly the same level as July and substantially down from 2010. The underlying downward trend is reinforced by the month to date numbers for September. We are projecting about 4,500 new foreclosure notices during September, a drop of some 16% from August and about 2,850 trustee sales, a drop of about 21%. Part of the drop is because September has 9% fewer working days (21) than August (23). Nevertheless it still looks like the foreclosure tide is on its way out, and the inventory of bank owned homes continues to fall, as does the count of pending foreclosures.

This article courtesy of Mike Orr at The Cromford Report  http://cromfordreport.com/

QUOTE OF THE WEEK…”The lure of the distant and the difficult is deceptive. The great opportunity is where you are.”–John Burroughs, American naturalist and essayist

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE…The great opportunity now is for home buyers to get a mortgage at an historically low rate. Freddie Mac reported national average mortgage rates set new record lows last week. But according to most observers, buyers shouldn’t expect further rate dips. Lenders are seeing plenty of loan volume, so they don’t have to lower pricing to get more activity.

Opportunity was also one of the themes in Fannie Mae’s August National Housing Survey, where 69% of Americans polled say now is a good time to buy a home. And in spite of all the talk about more price declines, people expect home prices to dip only 0.5% in the next year. This is why some observers feel we’re at a price bottom now. A strong 46% of Americans expect rents to go up in the next year, so that should motivate purchases as well.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK…Business school researchers found that the businesses able to survive economic downturns were ones who continually changed in response to the business climate, adapted to the headwinds and constantly tried new ideas.

>> Review of Last Week

CONTINENTAL DRIFT…In four days of stock trading, the Dow drifted down for the sixth week out of the last seven, all because of financial dramas on the European continent. Europe’s Central Bank President failed to offer any plan to stimulate growth following the downward revision to his GDP forecast for the region. Friday there was talk that Greece might default on its debt over the weekend. On our shores, news that weekly initial jobless claims are still above 400,000 didn’t help matters either.

Even a couple of surprisingly good U.S. economic reports couldn’t overcome all these bad vibes. The August ISM Services Index was UP, to a better-than-expected 53.3, showing expansion in the non-manufacturing sector responsible for about 85% of our jobs. Following this, it was reported that the July Trade Deficit shrank, thanks to a $6.2 billion INCREASE in exports, which are UP 15.1% in the last year, ahead of imports, up 13.6%.

For the week, the Dow ended down 2.2%, at 10992; the S&P 500 was down 1.7%, to 1154; and the Nasdaq was down 0.5%, at 2468.

Friday the bond market saw a huge flight to safety by investors motivated by those rumors of a weekend Greek default. A  government spokesman in Athens said that wouldn’t be so, but Wall Streeters opted for sleeping undisturbed until Monday. The FNMA 3.5% bond we track closed Friday at $102.03, up .81 for the week. Mortgage bond prices were up and, as mentioned above, national average mortgage rates set new record lows.

DID YOU KNOW?…The CPI inflation indicator measures the change in the cost of a fixed basket of products and services like housing, food and transportation. The Core CPI favored by the Fed excludes food and energy prices because of their monthly volatility.

>> This Week’s Forecast

This week began with the observance of the 10th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks. Our thoughts are with all those who lost their lives and with their families, whose lives were forever changed.

INFLATION, RETAIL, MANUFACTURING…Wholesale inflation is expected to be well under control in Wednesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI readings for August. Thursday, the critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI inflation measures are also forecast well within the Fed’s target range. August Retail Sales should still show consumers doing their part, although sales growth is predicted to be less than July’s.

Manufacturing is expected to be down a tad in the August Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization readings. And the Empire Manufacturing Index for New York and the Philadelphia Fed Index should still show contraction in those regions, although less than in the prior month.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Thank you to Tom Chapman at Prime Lending.

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE…Major progress has yet to be made in the housing recovery, but we can keep believing in it, since the data isn’t all negative. For example, Pending Homes Sales (contracts on existing homes) were down 1.3% in July, but were UP 2.4% in June, so Existing Home Sales should be up for August. In addition, July’s reading was UP 14.4% over last year. The National Association of Realtors chief economist said, “rising rents, record high affordability conditions and investors buying real estate as a future inflation hedge” bode well for real estate.

The latest Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported home prices UP 3.6% in the second quarter compared to the first, though still down 5.9% from a year ago. This puts home prices at the level they were in early 2003. The 20-city composite index was UP 1.1% for June, but down 4.5% versus last year. Best of all, none of the 20 cities posted monthly declines in June and 19 out of 20 showed increases. Also, data aggregator and analytics firm CoreLogic reported home prices up in July for the fourth month in a row.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK…Be prepared to succeed when the chance presents itself. We can’t control when an opportunity will happen, but we can control how well we’re prepared for it.

>> Review of Last Week

NO JOBS…No new jobs were added to payrolls in August, according to the national Employment Report released Friday. That was all investors needed to hear to start a stock selling spree, as the Dow lost 253 points for the day and ended down a fraction for the week. Jobs are important to the health of the housing market, but real estate is local. So earlier in the week it was encouraging to see the Bureau of Labor Statistics report that unemployment rates in July fell, compared to a year ago, in 69% of the 372 metro areas they track.

A mix of good and bad news continued. The Consumer Confidence Index for August hit its lowest level since April 2009. But the August ISM Manufacturing Index came in better than expected, a tick above 50, still indicating expansion. Final Q2 Productivity was down a trifle, but Personal Income was up for July. And Core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) was well within the Fed’s target range, up only 1.6% since last year.

For the week, the Dow ended down 0.4%, at 11240; the S&P 500 was down 0.2%, to 1174; and the Nasdaq was flat, at 2480.

The weak jobs report, combined with continued concerns over European sovereign debt, had investors scurrying to the safe haven of bonds, sending prices higher. The FNMA 3.5% bond we’re tracking closed Friday at $101.22, up .97 for the week. With mortgage bond prices up, rates were down, as national average mortgage rates stayed at or near historic lows.

DID YOU KNOW?…This week’s Fed Beige Book is a summary of economic conditions in each Federal Reserve region around the country. It’s an indicator of what the central bank may do at its meeting in two weeks.

>> This Week’s Forecast

HAPPY LABOR DAY!…All the best to you this Labor Day, as we honor the contribution that working men and women make to our country.

The financial markets are closed today and the rest of the week is light on economic news. ISM Services should stay above 50, showing modest expansion in this sector of the economy, which accounts for about 85% of our jobs. Initial Unemployment Claims are expected to hold just above 400,000, not where they should be, but well below their worst levels. The July Trade Balance is forecast to shrink a bit with more export activity from U.S. firms.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months…Since the Fed announced the Funds Rate should stay near zero through the first half of 2013, no one is predicting any hikes. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

http://pinalcountyaz.gov/Departments/Housing/Pages/NeighborhoodStabilizationProgram.aspx

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